Egregoros

"An attack on Kharg Island, however, would provide the media impact Trump is looking for. There would be no threat of FPV drone strikes from the mainland due to the distance, and the island itself is small (21 sq km) with a relatively limited Iranian military presence. "
HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.

Yeah I read that and instantly discarded everything else he said. The island is a death trap and the IRGC is salivating at the chance to get wet

But, the Strait is an even worse option. Really 'Scylla and Charybdis' vibes

that's assuming the invade it. What happens if the US just decides to destroy every piece of Iran's oil infrastructure

Then Iran destroys every piece of oil and natgas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain . . . You get the picture

They are perfectly capable of doing this and have said/demonstrated as much

Iran doesn't need oil infrastructure, and destroying GCC infra isn't in their interest. They can just switch to operating a toll booth, they don't need to produce any oil.

as I've mentioned before, I don't think the world is keen on Iran doing a mafia tactic on the globe and will look the other way if a bigger bully roughs them up.

The US is not doing all that great with the roughing up.

Iran will give a sweetheart deal to China. What anybody else can do about it?

Iran was already giving China a sweetheart deal. As to what can be done about it - at this point, lots of things.

It's obvious that the US can level every inch of Iran's oil production, and they can certainly damage the rest of the persian gulf's oil.

If people believe that Iran is going to do that anyway, they'll end up blaming Iran for a retaliation they do against the US if the US attacks first, which ultimately wouldn't be a good situation for them.

Why? The arab states are sunni. And they have no power. Only what America has. Iran doesn't want to be on their good side ffs they've been hating each other for 1300 years+. And iran cant just damage the arabs oil production. It can end it completely.

We don't know if it can end it completely, that depends on a lot of factors. Since the intercepts of the Iranian attacks has been not 100, what they have left versus the amount of targets they have matters a lot in terms of that calculation.

Russia is rearming them daily from the Caspian sea with chink stuff. Iran has replanished most of the drones it has used through that route alone (hence the kikes attempting strikes in the Caspian see). Chinks are making drones for them like they're funko pops. They're not running out. Ever. And just the money iran made until it closed tbe straits alongside what Russia made can pay for hundreds of thousands of drones.

Yeah, on Zerohedge some retarded article talked about kikes targeting the "smuggling" route between Russia and Iran at the Caspian.

It's two sovereign nations trading, that's not "smuggling". Of course weapon deliveries to the ukraine are not "smuggling", that's "aid". I hate these word-twisting assholes.

it feels like people need to be realistic about supply lines. Never is a very very big word

True, but I don't think it's a good bet to think we will have more luck cutting off Iranian supply than Russia has had with Ukraine. That's going on 4 years now.

that's a good point to compare against for sure. They don't need to last 4 years in any case; but it's also not a ground war (as of now)

I think from Iran's standpoint, attacking other neighbors isn't an effective short to mid term tactic

It is if you're shia and they're sunni.