Egregoros · Phoenix Framework

Kalogerosstilitis2RvngotJunta

@Kalogerosstilitis2RevengeoftheJunta@poa.st remote

3w

"An attack on Kharg Island, however, would provide the media impact Trump is looking for. There would be no threat of FPV drone strikes from the mainland due to the distance, and the island itself is small (21 sq km) with a relatively limited Iranian military presence. "
HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.

Trevor Goodchild

@TrevorGoodchild@poa.st remote

3w

Yeah I read that and instantly discarded everything else he said. The island is a death trap and the IRGC is salivating at the chance to get wet

But, the Strait is an even worse option. Really 'Scylla and Charybdis' vibes

Sick Burn, Bro

@sickburnbro@poa.st remote

3w

that's assuming the invade it. What happens if the US just decides to destroy every piece of Iran's oil infrastructure

Trevor Goodchild

@TrevorGoodchild@poa.st remote

3w

Then Iran destroys every piece of oil and natgas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain . . . You get the picture

They are perfectly capable of doing this and have said/demonstrated as much

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

3w

Iran doesn't need oil infrastructure, and destroying GCC infra isn't in their interest. They can just switch to operating a toll booth, they don't need to produce any oil.

Sick Burn, Bro

@sickburnbro@poa.st remote

3w

as I've mentioned before, I don't think the world is keen on Iran doing a mafia tactic on the globe and will look the other way if a bigger bully roughs them up.

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

3w

The world doesn't really care, this is because it's not really the customer who pays, it's the producer.

If oil is $100, Europe will buy from whoever is selling at $100. If Saudi wants to sell them oil, and Iran charges a $20 toll, Saudi has to sell at $80 or else their oil is uncompetitive.

Russia -> The only thing they're unhappy about is that oil isn't higher.

China -> Happy enough because Iran will let them pay in CNY, and then turn it around and use it to buy drone engines...

Everyone else? The UN? What does Iran need from anyone? The US and Israel can bomb Tehran to the stone age and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Iranians hiding in the mountains can destroy any ship they want in the Hormuz and there's nothing anyone can do about that either...

Sick Burn, Bro

@sickburnbro@poa.st remote

3w

if there is demand destruction, people will care.

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

3w

Running a toll is actually significantly better for the world than damaging oil infrastructure, because if they damage infra then oil supply is definitively reduced, and that reduction means oil price certainly goes up - which leads to the demand destruction you are referring to.

But a toll does not have that effect at all.

Saudi can pump profitably at $50/barrel. So even if none of this happened, Iran could have imposed a toll of $current_oil_price - 50, and that toll would be paid ENTIRELY by Saudi.

Why? Because offering to sell oil at above market doesn't work. Nobody buys it.

And if Saudi takes the hit, nobody loses except Saudi (and Wall Street)...

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

3w

Honestly, if Iran runs a toll and then uses the money to buy weapons from China, China is BETTER off than they would be if there was no toll at all.

That's because some % of all the money they have to spend on oil is coming right back to them in purchase orders. And that % of what everyone else in the world spends on oil is as well....

Trevor Goodchild

@TrevorGoodchild@poa.st remote

3w

Or they just get the toll waived.

"Special privilege, gwailo."

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

3w

Everything is subject to negotiation of course, but if Iran will just keep the toll money in Chinese banks, the Chinese will be PROUD to pay the full sticker price.

It's about establishing a discount on oil in the gulf, vs. oil on the high seas. The more that discount is, the more toll they can charge.