HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.
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19HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.
But, the Strait is an even worse option. Really 'Scylla and Charybdis' vibes
that's assuming the invade it. What happens if the US just decides to destroy every piece of Iran's oil infrastructure
They are perfectly capable of doing this and have said/demonstrated as much
Iran doesn't need oil infrastructure, and destroying GCC infra isn't in their interest. They can just switch to operating a toll booth, they don't need to produce any oil.
as I've mentioned before, I don't think the world is keen on Iran doing a mafia tactic on the globe and will look the other way if a bigger bully roughs them up.
Iran will give a sweetheart deal to China. What anybody else can do about it?
It's obvious that the US can level every inch of Iran's oil production, and they can certainly damage the rest of the persian gulf's oil.
If people believe that Iran is going to do that anyway, they'll end up blaming Iran for a retaliation they do against the US if the US attacks first, which ultimately wouldn't be a good situation for them.
Why? The arab states are sunni. And they have no power. Only what America has. Iran doesn't want to be on their good side ffs they've been hating each other for 1300 years+. And iran cant just damage the arabs oil production. It can end it completely.
We don't know if it can end it completely, that depends on a lot of factors. Since the intercepts of the Iranian attacks has been not 100, what they have left versus the amount of targets they have matters a lot in terms of that calculation.
Russia is rearming them daily from the Caspian sea with chink stuff. Iran has replanished most of the drones it has used through that route alone (hence the kikes attempting strikes in the Caspian see). Chinks are making drones for them like they're funko pops. They're not running out. Ever. And just the money iran made until it closed tbe straits alongside what Russia made can pay for hundreds of thousands of drones.
It's two sovereign nations trading, that's not "smuggling". Of course weapon deliveries to the ukraine are not "smuggling", that's "aid". I hate these word-twisting assholes.
it feels like people need to be realistic about supply lines. Never is a very very big word
True, but I don't think it's a good bet to think we will have more luck cutting off Iranian supply than Russia has had with Ukraine. That's going on 4 years now.
that's a good point to compare against for sure. They don't need to last 4 years in any case; but it's also not a ground war (as of now)
I think from Iran's standpoint, attacking other neighbors isn't an effective short to mid term tactic
Perhaps they should stop letting their countries be used for US staging attacks on Iran then
if we're going to get rid of all the rules of war, a lot of people are going to have a really, really bad time.
So no one gets to complain about reprisals. And nobody gets to go home
The reason why armies follow what appear to be "rules" is very simply because not following them is counterproductive to their goals.
Governments are nothing without an air of legitimacy, so the hearts-and-minds battle is positively central to any campaign.
It's quite plausible that the reason why Iran has not hit the Israeli desalination plant is because there are enough Muslim Palestinians who would die if Israel ran out of water, that it would harm Iran's standing with the wider Muslim community. It has nothing to do with Geneva Convention saying that civilian infrastructure is a no-no.
But this doesn't mean that they can't cluster-bomb Tel Aviv. That's also a "war crime", but it's not one that they really have to care about. Same goes for Israel using white phosphorus in Lebanon, it's a war crime, but not one that they really have to care about.
Russia was VERY gentlemanly in the early days of the Ukraine war, and this was because the international community was watching them, and public support for helping Ukraine was conditioned a lot on public perception of Russia as a terror state. But 4 years later nobody is watching anymore, so they now feel that destroying Ukranian power and heating infrastructure is not going to have any real down-sides for them.
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