Egregoros

"An attack on Kharg Island, however, would provide the media impact Trump is looking for. There would be no threat of FPV drone strikes from the mainland due to the distance, and the island itself is small (21 sq km) with a relatively limited Iranian military presence. "
HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.

Yeah I read that and instantly discarded everything else he said. The island is a death trap and the IRGC is salivating at the chance to get wet

But, the Strait is an even worse option. Really 'Scylla and Charybdis' vibes

that's assuming the invade it. What happens if the US just decides to destroy every piece of Iran's oil infrastructure

Then Iran destroys every piece of oil and natgas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain . . . You get the picture

They are perfectly capable of doing this and have said/demonstrated as much

they are certainly partially possible of doing it yes. But if they do that everyone will decide they were the lunatic that needed to be dealt with.

These are not the same games that the US was playing 15 years ago, and I fear that people are still assuming that.

The USG has already shown a willingness to both shoulder a short-term economic pain and also allow the infliction of pain on the rest of the world.