Egregoros

@TrevorGoodchild@poa.st remote

"An attack on Kharg Island, however, would provide the media impact Trump is looking for. There would be no threat of FPV drone strikes from the mainland due to the distance, and the island itself is small (21 sq km) with a relatively limited Iranian military presence. "
HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.

Trevor Goodchild

Yeah I read that and instantly discarded everything else he said. The island is a death trap and the IRGC is salivating at the chance to get wet

But, the Strait is an even worse option. Really 'Scylla and Charybdis' vibes

Sick Burn, Bro

@TrevorGoodchild@poa.st remote

that's assuming the invade it. What happens if the US just decides to destroy every piece of Iran's oil infrastructure

Trevor Goodchild

Then Iran destroys every piece of oil and natgas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain . . . You get the picture

They are perfectly capable of doing this and have said/demonstrated as much

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

Iran doesn't need oil infrastructure, and destroying GCC infra isn't in their interest. They can just switch to operating a toll booth, they don't need to produce any oil.

Sick Burn, Bro

as I've mentioned before, I don't think the world is keen on Iran doing a mafia tactic on the globe and will look the other way if a bigger bully roughs them up.

BroDrillard

The US is not doing all that great with the roughing up.

Iran will give a sweetheart deal to China. What anybody else can do about it?

Sick Burn, Bro

Iran was already giving China a sweetheart deal. As to what can be done about it - at this point, lots of things.

It's obvious that the US can level every inch of Iran's oil production, and they can certainly damage the rest of the persian gulf's oil.

If people believe that Iran is going to do that anyway, they'll end up blaming Iran for a retaliation they do against the US if the US attacks first, which ultimately wouldn't be a good situation for them.

Kalogerosstilitis2RvngotJunta

Why? The arab states are sunni. And they have no power. Only what America has. Iran doesn't want to be on their good side ffs they've been hating each other for 1300 years+. And iran cant just damage the arabs oil production. It can end it completely.

Sick Burn, Bro

We don't know if it can end it completely, that depends on a lot of factors. Since the intercepts of the Iranian attacks has been not 100, what they have left versus the amount of targets they have matters a lot in terms of that calculation.

Kalogerosstilitis2RvngotJunta

Russia is rearming them daily from the Caspian sea with chink stuff. Iran has replanished most of the drones it has used through that route alone (hence the kikes attempting strikes in the Caspian see). Chinks are making drones for them like they're funko pops. They're not running out. Ever. And just the money iran made until it closed tbe straits alongside what Russia made can pay for hundreds of thousands of drones.

BroDrillard

Yeah, on Zerohedge some retarded article talked about kikes targeting the "smuggling" route between Russia and Iran at the Caspian.

It's two sovereign nations trading, that's not "smuggling". Of course weapon deliveries to the ukraine are not "smuggling", that's "aid". I hate these word-twisting assholes.

Sick Burn, Bro

it feels like people need to be realistic about supply lines. Never is a very very big word

RobCaruso

@RobCaruso@poa.st remote

True, but I don't think it's a good bet to think we will have more luck cutting off Iranian supply than Russia has had with Ukraine. That's going on 4 years now.

Sick Burn, Bro

that's a good point to compare against for sure. They don't need to last 4 years in any case; but it's also not a ground war (as of now)

Sick Burn, Bro

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

I think from Iran's standpoint, attacking other neighbors isn't an effective short to mid term tactic

Caleb James DeLisle

I don't think it's clear at all that this is actually bad strategy. Just like the US, these countries are all made up of a bunch of different demographics. So when the Saudi government says something, it means about as much to the average Saudi as it means to you when Trump says something.

Iran's goal is to cause revolutions in the GCC countries because the royal families are not super well liked by the normal people there...

We don't really know if this is gonna work out for them, but we also don't know that it won't...

Sick Burn, Bro

that's a nice idea and all, but I don't think it's well thought out.

I don't think this is a "make a god bleed" scenario because the US was bloodied pretty substantially in Iraq and they didn't leave for a fucking forever, which works against "just do this one rash thing and you'll immediately win"

Replying to @sickburnbro@poa.st

BroDrillard

America is not what it was 20 years ago.

Neither are China and Russia (in the other direction). And they are in Iran's corner, if for no other reason just to fuck with the US.

Replies

Replying to @BroDrillard@nicecrew.digital

Sick Burn, Bro

indeed, they are certainly willing to use Iran as a proxy, at worst just to get a free test of their equiment.

But just like people get mad about the US being a bad ally, Iran also might need to be careful assuming that support is infinite.

Replying to @sickburnbro@poa.st

Kalogerosstilitis2RvngotJunta

Russia loses iran and America plops forces in the Caspian sea from an impenetrable mountain fort. That's another Ukraine right there only worse. Theyll stick with iran as long as physically possible just for that reason alone.

Replying to @Kalogerosstilitis2RevengeoftheJunta@poa.st

Sick Burn, Bro

you're assuming that they will have to make no choices between ukraine and iran. I am assuming that is possible and they will choose ukraine.

Replying to @sickburnbro@poa.st

BroDrillard