Egregoros

@mrsaturday @cell @eal I never had super strong feelings on "everything prediction markets" but we're seeing it play out and the externalities are huge and obvious

@sun @eal @cell @mrsaturday
to me seems like stonks are the same thing with the same negative effects

@ageha @eal @cell @mrsaturday there is a case to be made for this, for example you could mitigate this by adding a mandatory delay to purchases so it still gives market liquidity but doesn't facilitate gambling. but I think there's a big difference between buying stocks and just like, gambling if a presidential speech is going to end by a particular minute mark and the president then abruptly ends his speech to beat that mark and somebody sweeps up a million dollars

@sun @eal @cell @mrsaturday
true there's a scope difference, but not sure "market liquidity" is a good thing even. feels like stonking yields too much hopping around, so everyone building façades one after another to draw money rather than investing in making anything-that-doesn't-suck.

@ageha @eal @cell @mrsaturday of course it's a good thing, price discovery is good and there has to be a way to do that. it just doesn't have to have microsecond-granularity, that is just for skimming

@sun @eal @cell @mrsaturday
what i see is "company builds garbage and lies about it to get good valuation, cash out, move to the next thing

and without that avenue for turn-around maybe they'd have to actually sell something to get money

@ageha @eal @cell @mrsaturday thats a different problem entirely imo

@ageha @eal @cell @mrsaturday day to day you could even get granularity down to like, daily or hourly. if the goal is really just "respond to market conditions" rather than "arbitrage"