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Chinese Professor Guy said this was likely. In a US/IL v. IR struggle, Russia declares that nuclear war is forbidden - positioning themselves on moral high ground while ensuring US/IL will be bogged down in miserable mountain fighting which weakens the US and gives them an opening to step up on the stage.

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Israel wants the US to fight Iran because they want Iran vanquished and the US to get out of the mid east so they can expand without anyone resisting them.

Iran wants to unify the Muslim world, overthrow the kings, and establish a religious caliphate across the whole middle east. BUT, Iran has spent so long preparing for an apocalyptic war against the US that they've kind of psyched themselves up for it.

Saudi (royals) wants to survive, and Iran is a HUGE PROBLEM for them because Iran does not believe in kings. So they'll pretend to side with Iran while secretly supporting Israel.

The US wants a war to distract from their collapsing empire.

Russia wants the US tied up in the mid east so they can conquer the former USSR and unify the Orthodox world.

So - unfortunately, everybody wants the same thing so it's quite likely that it will actually happen.
Yes. I think basically everybody knows that, but the Americans might try it anyway for 2 reasons:
1. They got really lucky in Iraq, and they have developed this new doctrine that "shock and awe" is all you need, and the oppressed people will rise up and take your side.
2. They kind of don't care because it's like Wag The Dog, start a war just to distract from issues going on at home, which are far more (personally) embarrassing.

Never forget: Serious western analysts were saying that Russia was going to collapse within 6 months (of the UA invasion). Smelling your own farts (propaganda) is a huge problem for these people.
> War isn't going to sell with the American public

IMO this is why Trump is didn't go in last summer, as soon as he started talking about it the "fell for it again" meme dropped and made him look like a jackass.

I think most likely, they just do it without American support and they just recruit immigrants.
Just end of the US Empire things.

The biggest problem with the US Empire is that countries didn't really need to worry about war, and they could borrow more or less infinitely from USD debt markets. So this removed the survival imperative of being efficient. As a result, countries started inventing weird stupid ideologies and basically self-destructing.

When countries have to concern themselves with potentially being invaded, and sovereign debt markets are no longer "infinite", we will start to see leaders acting like leaders again.
This is also, incidentally, why post-scarcity society will never work. Not because it's impossible, mass production makes it very possible for prices to be low enough that most people can live a simple life without ever producing anything.

The problem is that "idle hands do the devil's work", in the sense that people who are granted a life of leisure inevitably turn their attention to "changing the world", which almost always means destroying the systems upon which their leisure depends.

From the wealthiest philanthropist accelerating population collapse, to the poorest college student sitting in the road for "the climate", those who do not need to get up in the morning in order to survive always turn their attention to killing the golden goose.

Well, that's kind of a problem for the US because nobody wants to go to war anymore, and draft has been impossible since the 60s (Americans just shoot the draft officers). So they're probably going to recruit illegals on the promise of citizenship and just feed them into the meat grinder.