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@TrevorGoodchild >Data on de novo mutations from 1247 Icelandic trios (14) were used to train a model that predicts the effect of both maternal and paternal age on the mutation spectrum. (B) Data from 25.3 million segregating variants whose date of origin was estimated using GEVA (15) were used to assess the mutation spectrum at different periods in the past. The mutation spectrum from each time period (bin) was used as input to the model from (A) to estimate the generation interval for males and females. (C) Differences in the frequency of each of the six different mutation types through time, as compared to the most recent time period (smoothed lines from local regression). Figure S15 presents the absolute frequencies of the same mutation data over time.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm7047

SO ARE THEY TRAINING A MODEL ON GENOMES FROM 1247 SAMPLES FROM ICELAND
THEN THEY'RE GETTING A GIANT SAMPLE OF GENOMES FROM SOME DATABASE AND APPLYING THE MODEL BUILT ON THE ICELANDIC SAMPLE TO THEM

I DONT KNOOOOOOOOW
@TrevorGoodchild I'm a little rusty on how biologists do things but is THIS the confidence interval? Three+ years?
This makes the dataset a bit useless, no?
Again, rusty, but doesn't that mean basically any person from the dataset could potentially have been born to parents three to five years younger (or older), AND they don't even know who's siblings, whos the firstborn, etc...
Then the only thing this entire study tells us is that the average male-female gap was about 7 years...
>We noticed you were using AI for some fucking insane reason

I know a Labubu who knows a Labubu who has an insider perspective on the academic/scientific publishing industry and he tells me pretty much everything is written by AI now, especially if it’s from India or China (which is if not a majority of papers then it’s certainly enough that the industry would collapse if these papers were categorically rejected for common sense racism/anti AI reasons) they typically sign some disclosure that says something like “I super promise i just used ai to help me with structuring sentences and with grammar because english is not my first language please understand, the scientific work was all done for real properly by the authors” and nobody asks too many questions because if anyone starts asking a lot of questions they’ll probably go under.
@TrevorGoodchild Intriguing statement. I'm curious to see how they estimated this. I guess "average" would include children at older and younger ages. My grandma had children roughly spaced out from 18 to 38, ~ 28 average. Guessing historically the upper ages would have been less common due childbirth and other more mortality? I'm wonder how this matches with information in more recent historical archives like church records? somebody has probably done a study

Gee, doesn't sound like that "In medieval and ancient times, they were getting pregnant at 12" argument is actually valid. What a shocker. Looks like humans have been consistent for many thousands of years, right up until the 20th century. Imagine that.

@TrevorGoodchild @AuntNorma the problem is this study doesn't help much in proving that.
People keep saying what you're saying and it's probably reasonable.
But we can't really prove it without human experimentation or more historical data.
You could also easily make a case that pre-agricultural humans accumulated a lot of damage once they hit adulthood, meaning a woman in her 20s would have other disadvantages in pregnancy.
And
>unfinished physical development
is still really hard to estimate too just because white girls in industrial society mature later and malnourished girls also do, that's hardly a full picture