Egregoros

@passthejoe @rl_dane @evgandr I don't believe for a second that it will play out as currently projected. All this news like "Western Digital's entire 2026 production is already bought out" is nonsense. They'll cancel their orders as soon as the market starts turning. No different than the news about Nvidia backing out of their $100B deal with OpenAI.

We'll have inflated prices yet for a while but as soon as they start having inventory storage issues you'll see those prices come down.

Remember, Microsoft has a ridiculous amount of GPUs which they purchased and they physically cannot use because not only are there no servers/datacenter space for them, but there's no grid capacity anywhere to build it out.

I think what we're seeing is a bunch of tech companies whose forward projections were not looking good because the entire market is ill, so they jumped into this thinking they could beat the competition and control a significant market share of a new service category for a while. They're all gambling and skipped some steps. Makes me think of a couple years ago when houses were selling without inspections because buyers were fighting over the inventory.

The tech companies skipped the "inspection" before buying all of this, and now they're trying to figure out how to make it work.