This guy is a gem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTgrWmOk4q8
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Why ASML won:
They went against standard philosophy -> Standard philosophy is you always have multiple vendors.
ASML went entirely against this, instead they found the best supplier in the world for each one of their critical components, and they signed an exclusivity deal with each one.
So ASML couldn't buy from anyone else, and the company couldn't sell to anyone else.
So China is still trying to catch up, because they are not able to buy ANY of the parts of the stepper.
They went against standard philosophy -> Standard philosophy is you always have multiple vendors.
ASML went entirely against this, instead they found the best supplier in the world for each one of their critical components, and they signed an exclusivity deal with each one.
So ASML couldn't buy from anyone else, and the company couldn't sell to anyone else.
So China is still trying to catch up, because they are not able to buy ANY of the parts of the stepper.
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28@cjd so you still claim you don't know anything? Is this stupid coincidence?
It's from the video I linked. ^^
> If I have to advise young people who want to learn a new field - unless it's very new - I advise to look up books before 1965, preferable British books, because in Britain they write with esoteric expertise about a very narrow subject.
> So good books, they have to be old, the author usually has a hyphenated name...
> So good books, they have to be old, the author usually has a hyphenated name...
> People go to university now but they have no retention, they don't remember anything from school.
> Sixty years ago they had no electives, and the whole program was synchronized, so if you learned Fourier transform in math, then in the next week, the physics teacher was using it.
> It was a bunch of German professors who just recreated the same curriculum they had in Berlin.
> And they taught fundamentals, because if you teach the vacuum tube, then the transistor comes along, that's not useful. But fundamentals don't change through your life.
> Sixty years ago they had no electives, and the whole program was synchronized, so if you learned Fourier transform in math, then in the next week, the physics teacher was using it.
> It was a bunch of German professors who just recreated the same curriculum they had in Berlin.
> And they taught fundamentals, because if you teach the vacuum tube, then the transistor comes along, that's not useful. But fundamentals don't change through your life.
> How did you know that you would be no good at business?
> Well, my dad was a writer, so there's no way I could have the genes for that
> Well, my dad was a writer, so there's no way I could have the genes for that
> If you're not thinking about what you're working on in the shower, then you're in the wrong field
> Of the 100 most important inventions in the world, most of them are crowded between the years of 1850 and 1920.
@cjd I may have missed it, but I didn't see the the single most important invention of all time: air conditioning.
Yea, saying cell phones and birth control are more important than refrigeration tells you something about the people who compiled the list...
@cjd Sitting on the toilet, too.
@cjd if I were to advise young people, I'd just tell them to get their hands dirty. Learn welding or something else that's actually useful. I'd also tell them that this "you can be whatever you want to be, just take a loan and go study" stuff is pure nonsense. But I'm a known misogynist and a drunk, so what do I know ;)
That's good advice just on account of the fact that universities are no longer teaching anything useful as they did 60 years ago.
@cjd I'm kinda thing that it's a good advice just because a welder makes 50k a year on average in the States, while your average master of arts in the liberal studies is unemployed and lives on food stamps ;)
@cjd not selling to china is a great way to make your company obsolete in 10 years. selling to china and you will be obsolete in 5
Well, the ASML photolithography stuff doesn't seem to be going obsolete any time soon.
@cjd asml got to this point mostly because japs are a bunch of idiots, now they are basically broke and china is gonna buy them up
> japs are a bunch of idiots
Heh no.
t. Toyota
> basically broke and china is gonna buy them up
Loolll
They have technology that nobody else is able to reproduce and everyone (in the world) somehow uses. Not only is it "impossible" that they can go broke, but it's also impossible that the US and EU will ever allow that technology to be sent to China.
Heh no.
t. Toyota
> basically broke and china is gonna buy them up
Loolll
They have technology that nobody else is able to reproduce and everyone (in the world) somehow uses. Not only is it "impossible" that they can go broke, but it's also impossible that the US and EU will ever allow that technology to be sent to China.
@cjd Japan used to be the leader in lithography, then they bet wrong on both EUV and DUV wet vs dry method and just crashed. Then they where like wouldn't it be nice if we both sanction China and the EU? so they can't sell to anyone anymore.
@cjd if you look at both EUV and immersion lithography patents it's a bunch of japanese, but nikon was like our DUV machines are selling fine and don't want to do all the R&D
Japanese are impressively good at engineering, but lithography is one of the hardest problems that humans are actively trying to solve, so ASML's idea of tying up the makers of all the best components in the world, is very hard to get ahead of...
And ASML will never go to China, it'll be treated like a nuclear secret.
And ASML will never go to China, it'll be treated like a nuclear secret.
@cjd EUV is a solved problem though, you know what the solution looks like, are you willing to spend the time and resource to figure out the steps only to be the second player and compete with ASML on price.
Solved problem in theory, you just need to make a mirror that is smooth to within 1 atom. So China can probably make one, but while they're making it, ASML is going to be working on the next order of magnitude of scale... Especially if they have to build everything themselves while ASML has tied up all of the US and European component providers...
@cjd I think we are talking about the same thing. The whole reason China wants lithography machine is to develop the supply chain locally, so it doesn't make that much difference if they can't source parts aboard.
Yeah but that's like China vs. The World, which is a really miserable competition for China...
@cjd tbh, i would be fine with cpus from 15 years ago if they were open design and cheap. bit sad the loongson or how they were called went nowhere.
I think there's some open source RISC-V Verilog out there...