graphs do not line up. it is bothering me
what is going on down there
what is going on down there
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@WandererUber @nayibbukele niggers became wholesome when they've realized that shit was hitting the fan?
I quoasted the other El Salvador stat too
There isn't even an additional speed increase for the dropping murder rate after this guy started his big arrest wave how is that possible
How did it start dropping before his mass arrests started?
very very weird, and I'm like Bukeles #1 fan (because of the guards in capes)
There isn't even an additional speed increase for the dropping murder rate after this guy started his big arrest wave how is that possible
How did it start dropping before his mass arrests started?
very very weird, and I'm like Bukeles #1 fan (because of the guards in capes)
@WandererUber @nayibbukele oh good point
Yeah there was this very sharp plunge from 2015 - 2019 — didn’t appear to have anything to do with arrest rates.
"WE NEED TO STOP MURDERING BECAUSE IN SIX YEARS THE GOVERNMENT WILL START MASS INCARCERATING MURDERERS"
WAS THERE LIKE
A STREET WAR AGAINST CARTELS?
WAS THERE LIKE
A STREET WAR AGAINST CARTELS?
Did that line up with an internal war in ms19 or whatever they're called? The winners then slow down the murders to 50% of their former peak rate until they're still the murder capital of the new world?
I can see a scenario where the winners of a cartel faction war then slow down the killings but to a rate way above any of their neighbours
An argument could be made that the big spike and drop was turf wars being settled, but still that graph shows absolutely no correlation between dropping murder rate and rising arrest rate and it's a little concerning to me that the guy presents it as if it does.
that's barely related to my point. The graph still doesn't show it.
@WandererUber @john_darksoul @nugger He became mayor of San Salvador, which is basically the bulk of El Salvador, in 2015, so that’s probably what it’s showing.
@WandererUber @john_darksoul @nugger Then he became president in 2019, so idk, it seems like it lines up to me. He was doing something right.
are you guys both rage baiting me?
>Arrest rate on a steady rise since 2005
>murder rate: Also rising
>Arrest rate not accelerating its rise in 2015
>murder rate: dropping
>arrest rate skyrocketing in 2021
>no change to murder decrease rate
My only point is that it's weird that he is using the graph and explicitly labelling it "vs" too, when clearly it shows the opposite of his claim.
If there are other effects that led to the reduction, a graph of the murder rate with the years of his elections to mayor and president would have been sufficient and actually made a good point.
This is weird. People who understand things don't do this.
>Arrest rate on a steady rise since 2005
>murder rate: Also rising
>Arrest rate not accelerating its rise in 2015
>murder rate: dropping
>arrest rate skyrocketing in 2021
>no change to murder decrease rate
My only point is that it's weird that he is using the graph and explicitly labelling it "vs" too, when clearly it shows the opposite of his claim.
If there are other effects that led to the reduction, a graph of the murder rate with the years of his elections to mayor and president would have been sufficient and actually made a good point.
This is weird. People who understand things don't do this.
wat dem picchus mean 
THEY DON'T TRACK ARRESTS IN SAN SALVADOR AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL?
SOMETHING THAT ISN'T ARRESTS HAD HAPPENED THAT CAUSED THE MURDER RATE TO DROP OFF A CLIFF
@nugger @john_darksoul @WandererUber That’s probably what happened. Anti-corruption, more serious enforcement of laws, hiring more cops, etc.
Crime went down, it wasn’t until the final crackdown that arrests spiked, but the threat was increasing before then.
Crime went down, it wasn’t until the final crackdown that arrests spiked, but the threat was increasing before then.
YANNAH BIX NOOD WE WUZ 
@john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger If the admin made a one-sided truce that ended in 2015, that would help explain why the murder rate dropped so sharply in 2015.
@WandererUber @john_darksoul @nugger It isn’t weird, you just lack context about the country you’re sperging at.
>I can’t see the graph, won’t display.
are you fucking kidding me?
Totally pointless discussion!
are you fucking kidding me?
Totally pointless discussion!
It's entirely unreasonable to
>discuss a graph you have not seen
>impune my reasoning as if I *WAS* saying that Bukele had nothing to do with it, when I have never done this at all
You're being no better than chatGPT you just come up with things that are vaguely in the same word-space as what the discussion was about and you don't even reason before speaking. And on top of that you insult me for it.
Absolutely retarded Darksouls moment. I'll see you in Vermont
>discuss a graph you have not seen
>impune my reasoning as if I *WAS* saying that Bukele had nothing to do with it, when I have never done this at all
You're being no better than chatGPT you just come up with things that are vaguely in the same word-space as what the discussion was about and you don't even reason before speaking. And on top of that you insult me for it.
Absolutely retarded Darksouls moment. I'll see you in Vermont
guy makes an argument like
"Graph shows X" and then posts a graph that very clearly does not show X
Explain how that is my fault, and how it's related to supposedly lacking context and or sperging out. I think people aren't sperging enough atp, because apparently only the autistic can identify a bad argument being made and stick to that point of discussion, without assuming ten trillion other things the other might possibly believe, like you are doing with me.
I am Bukele's biggest fan, don't know why you guys keep hallucinating shit I have not said.
"Graph shows X" and then posts a graph that very clearly does not show X
Explain how that is my fault, and how it's related to supposedly lacking context and or sperging out. I think people aren't sperging enough atp, because apparently only the autistic can identify a bad argument being made and stick to that point of discussion, without assuming ten trillion other things the other might possibly believe, like you are doing with me.
I am Bukele's biggest fan, don't know why you guys keep hallucinating shit I have not said.
@WandererUber @john_darksoul @nugger It’s a fucking tweet yo. You’re blaming him for not cramming the nuance of 20 years of justice policy and failures into a single tweet, because you don’t understand history that anyone from El Salvador would have a rock solid grasp of. If you did a little bit of digging you might understand what he’s saying. Or you could be his stat professor and tell him his axis aren’t labeled right.
it's really rude to imply this and totally uncalled for too.
I already gave an example of something better (just mark the years where he was elected).
The weirdness isn't that I think "fighting crime has no correlation to a reduction in murder rate" it's just that if it is all that other stuff, why is he making this point with a graph that undermines his position.
The axes are labelled correctly. Please start engaging with the actual content of my argument or leave me alone and stop insulting me for no reason. I know a lot more than the average person about El Salvador and it's really stupid to assume I just don't know what I am talking about WHILE looking at a graph that shows no correlation yet maintaining it does.
Stop talking to the liberal in your head, and start talking to me.
I already gave an example of something better (just mark the years where he was elected).
The weirdness isn't that I think "fighting crime has no correlation to a reduction in murder rate" it's just that if it is all that other stuff, why is he making this point with a graph that undermines his position.
The axes are labelled correctly. Please start engaging with the actual content of my argument or leave me alone and stop insulting me for no reason. I know a lot more than the average person about El Salvador and it's really stupid to assume I just don't know what I am talking about WHILE looking at a graph that shows no correlation yet maintaining it does.
Stop talking to the liberal in your head, and start talking to me.
)) 🍉
I was going to agree with you and engage in speculation but I read the replies and saw we're doing a "ragebait Wanderer" today so instead I'm just going to call you a libcuck who wants to release murderers
@WandererUber @nugger I'm talking to the most nigger-brained autist on fedi. What other graph should he have used? Labelling the dates he was elected would've just seemed narcicisstic, since it's not like he invented putting MS13 in prison. He can't post "libtard judges curtailed." El Salvador observers would know 2015 was the year MS13 was declared a terror organization. In 2014 arrests were on the rise but gang leaders were getting cell phones in prison.
It takes a bit of nuance but it's not actually that hard to figure out.
It takes a bit of nuance but it's not actually that hard to figure out.
@nierenstein @WandererUber @nayibbukele Say wallahi bro
@WandererUber @nayibbukele maybe you need to see it from the third world perspective
>criminals see more arrest happening
>they get uppity because they think they desserve to have all the power
>sudden rise was caused by criminals as reprisal towards upgoing trend in arrests
>seeing that bukele isnt stopping criminal morale drops(like it does with any bandit when overpowered)
>once morale drops the criminals scatter like roaches which makes them easier targets for arrest
>big spike in arrests happens
at least that's how i see it
>criminals see more arrest happening
>they get uppity because they think they desserve to have all the power
>sudden rise was caused by criminals as reprisal towards upgoing trend in arrests
>seeing that bukele isnt stopping criminal morale drops(like it does with any bandit when overpowered)
>once morale drops the criminals scatter like roaches which makes them easier targets for arrest
>big spike in arrests happens
at least that's how i see it
@WandererUber @nayibbukele All the so-called criminals in El Salvador were just hyped for Fallout 4, and well you know how an excited gamer is. But after they actually played the game it was so bad that they started killing themselves, and that's why the murder rate started dropping.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger so they were scared of him? Cuz arrests still dont line up with lower murder rates
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger it wouldn't explain why it consistently dropped since then, to levels below even before the truce, before bukele started doing arrests
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger no, it might explain a drop to pre-truce levels. What did it might has been treating them as terrorists, definately not arrests. You can see the trend following the classification continue unchanged despite mass incarceration.
@WandererUber @nayibbukele Here is my reasoning:
The correlation is non linear and you get diminishing returns
Also there is no way to no if the the muder rate would drop to thst level without mass incarceration or hit an asymptote befoe that level
The correlation is non linear and you get diminishing returns
Also there is no way to no if the the muder rate would drop to thst level without mass incarceration or hit an asymptote befoe that level
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger 2012-2014 was the gang truce era, you posted it. Sharp, almost exponential curve to the peak in 2015. In 2015, the second leftist government classifies gangs as terrorists and make youth outreach programs. From the peak in 2015, theres a straight line going down to the bottom until today. The curve does not change despite an increase in arrests later on.
The murder rate is lower than it was in 2012 in 2017. Had it just been and undoing of a truce, the graph would've stayed at 2012 levels. Put it kept plummetting, in a constant fashion.
The murder rate is lower than it was in 2012 in 2017. Had it just been and undoing of a truce, the graph would've stayed at 2012 levels. Put it kept plummetting, in a constant fashion.
There are fewer murders in the end than in the early 2000s before cartel wars may have started. (guessing) So incarceration may have removed the remaining criminals after the wars settled. Which would support Bukele's claim although not to the extent implied at first glance.
@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger why. Why would it have stayed at pre-truce levels. What’s giving you this impression?
@pernia @WandererUber @john_darksoul @nugger maybe it kept going down because they were putting criminals in jail, keeping them in jail, and not letting them use cell phones?
@Griffith @pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber "THERE'S AN AMBIENT BROWNOID CRIME LEVEL"
@Griffith @john_darksoul @pernia @WandererUber @nugger should go the extra mile and mark some more crimes and recividism as punishable by death. prisons waste resources and space.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger well yea, but if they were putting more criminals in jail, the graphs would've shown that. And i think it does, the arrests go up ever so slightly as time moves on until bukele. They didnt let them use cellphones ever i don't think. I think just based on what chatgpt told you the youth outreach and terrorist classification did the most, unless there's more policies its not covering. Probably terrorist charges are gonna stick much more than others, which would support what ur saying about keeping criminals in jail.
@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger What matters is the state in which they're kept in prison as well. If the truce had never been made and a successful crackdown had been made earlier, we likely would have seen a straight trend downward for the murder rate.
It's important to note that after 2014 the government added more and more measures to combat the gangs.
Important to note that the youth outreach program was one of the cornerstones of the truce era, and it did jack shit, because the problem wasn't "the youth" it was the gangs.
Bukele is right to point out that a very, very small % of the overall population is committing virtually all of the crime. If that segment of the population is completely rounded up and imprisoned, the country becomes safer than the US.
It's important to note that after 2014 the government added more and more measures to combat the gangs.
Important to note that the youth outreach program was one of the cornerstones of the truce era, and it did jack shit, because the problem wasn't "the youth" it was the gangs.
Bukele is right to point out that a very, very small % of the overall population is committing virtually all of the crime. If that segment of the population is completely rounded up and imprisoned, the country becomes safer than the US.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger no, before the truce the murder rate stayed constant at around ~70 per 1000. There were no signs of it dropping. There were probably more measures after 2014, but i don't think you nor i know em lol. So I'm hedging on the terrorist classification. Its very clear at this point bukeles arrests did nothing and were done way too late.
@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger "it's very clear" no it's not. The murder rate reached its lowest point following the mass arrests by Bukele. There is no evidence to suggest that the world-famous low rate of crime in El Salvador is attributable to anything other than Bukele's mass incarceration program. If you want to credit the previous governmnent as well, you can, but you'll also notice that incarceration rates were higher post-2014 than pre-2014, when the rate dropped steeply. All of this supports mass-incarceration. No credible alternative is present anywhere in this graph.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger bro, take a ruler. The drop is a straight line from 2015. Had bukele done something, it wouldnt ve straight anymore. The drop wouldve become steeper. It in fact is not.