Egregoros

are you guys both rage baiting me?
>Arrest rate on a steady rise since 2005
>murder rate: Also rising
>Arrest rate not accelerating its rise in 2015
>murder rate: dropping
>arrest rate skyrocketing in 2021
>no change to murder decrease rate

My only point is that it's weird that he is using the graph and explicitly labelling it "vs" too, when clearly it shows the opposite of his claim.
If there are other effects that led to the reduction, a graph of the murder rate with the years of his elections to mayor and president would have been sufficient and actually made a good point.

This is weird. People who understand things don't do this.

guy makes an argument like
"Graph shows X" and then posts a graph that very clearly does not show X
Explain how that is my fault, and how it's related to supposedly lacking context and or sperging out. I think people aren't sperging enough atp, because apparently only the autistic can identify a bad argument being made and stick to that point of discussion, without assuming ten trillion other things the other might possibly believe, like you are doing with me.

I am Bukele's biggest fan, don't know why you guys keep hallucinating shit I have not said.

it's really rude to imply this and totally uncalled for too.
I already gave an example of something better (just mark the years where he was elected).
The weirdness isn't that I think "fighting crime has no correlation to a reduction in murder rate" it's just that if it is all that other stuff, why is he making this point with a graph that undermines his position.

The axes are labelled correctly. Please start engaging with the actual content of my argument or leave me alone and stop insulting me for no reason. I know a lot more than the average person about El Salvador and it's really stupid to assume I just don't know what I am talking about WHILE looking at a graph that shows no correlation yet maintaining it does.

Stop talking to the liberal in your head, and start talking to me.

@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger 2012-2014 was the gang truce era, you posted it. Sharp, almost exponential curve to the peak in 2015. In 2015, the second leftist government classifies gangs as terrorists and make youth outreach programs. From the peak in 2015, theres a straight line going down to the bottom until today. The curve does not change despite an increase in arrests later on.

The murder rate is lower than it was in 2012 in 2017. Had it just been and undoing of a truce, the graph would've stayed at 2012 levels. Put it kept plummetting, in a constant fashion.

@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger well yea, but if they were putting more criminals in jail, the graphs would've shown that. And i think it does, the arrests go up ever so slightly as time moves on until bukele. They didnt let them use cellphones ever i don't think. I think just based on what chatgpt told you the youth outreach and terrorist classification did the most, unless there's more policies its not covering. Probably terrorist charges are gonna stick much more than others, which would support what ur saying about keeping criminals in jail.

@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger What matters is the state in which they're kept in prison as well. If the truce had never been made and a successful crackdown had been made earlier, we likely would have seen a straight trend downward for the murder rate.
It's important to note that after 2014 the government added more and more measures to combat the gangs.
Important to note that the youth outreach program was one of the cornerstones of the truce era, and it did jack shit, because the problem wasn't "the youth" it was the gangs.
Bukele is right to point out that a very, very small % of the overall population is committing virtually all of the crime. If that segment of the population is completely rounded up and imprisoned, the country becomes safer than the US.

@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger "it's very clear" no it's not. The murder rate reached its lowest point following the mass arrests by Bukele. There is no evidence to suggest that the world-famous low rate of crime in El Salvador is attributable to anything other than Bukele's mass incarceration program. If you want to credit the previous governmnent as well, you can, but you'll also notice that incarceration rates were higher post-2014 than pre-2014, when the rate dropped steeply. All of this supports mass-incarceration. No credible alternative is present anywhere in this graph.

@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger the first one is a little better, the second one doesn't do the situation justice because it completely ignores outliers (like the massive peak during the truce era, and the massive increase in arrrests after bukele).

If i may be frank asking me to plot the inverse correlation is a little much for this thread xd. I'd need to get the values into an excel, etc. In either case, I'm not arguing that there's an inverse correlation between arrests and murder rates. we can see the opposite, the arrests increase at a constant rate ever so slightly, and murders drop overall. Its important to note however, during that period of constant rate of arrests, the murder rate fluctuates wildly, increasing erratically and then dropping in 2015, so the correlation is weak.

What I'm saying is that there is *no* correlation between bukele's arrests in 2020 and the murder rate.

I drew a best fit line in red that is straight. Half of this trend started before bukele, the other half continued under bukele. It looks more like a decaying curve after looking at it more closely so I drew that in orange.

Had bukele's arrests actually had an effect, we would see a sharp decline in murder rate proportional to the sharp increase in arrests, but that's clearly not the case.

Perhaps a previous policy bukele had in 2015 *did* start or help the trend of decline of murder rates, but his policy of mass incarceration post 2020 did not.

@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger 2012-2014 was the gang truce era, you posted it. Sharp, almost exponential curve to the peak in 2015. In 2015, the second leftist government classifies gangs as terrorists and make youth outreach programs. From the peak in 2015, theres a straight line going down to the bottom until today. The curve does not change despite an increase in arrests later on.

The murder rate is lower than it was in 2012 in 2017. Had it just been and undoing of a truce, the graph would've stayed at 2012 levels. Put it kept plummetting, in a constant fashion.

@BroDrillard @nayibbukele @nugger I think Bukele's claim in general ("being tough on crime works") is reasonably well supported anyways. But his specific claim, made as a quote post in response ("arrest rate directly corresponds to reduced murder rate") isn't born out from the data he presents here. the opposite in fact is.

You ever seen that anti-vaxxer graph where they show reduction in measles [I think] occured BEFORE they rolled out the vaccine?
Same thing. In absence of other data, it actually DISPROVES the claim.