I really dont give 2 shits about Iran or israel's wars. GAS IS FUCKING $5 A GALLON YOU ORANGE RETARD!!!!
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@Evil_Bender
I'm hearing $6 diesel in some places. That's very bad.
I'm hearing $6 diesel in some places. That's very bad.
incredibly, the industry can absorb it for awhile. but long term high diesel costs will put half of trucking out of business, happened in 2008 also.
@Evil_Bender
Of course that would happen the year I start CDL training.
Of course that would happen the year I start CDL training.
If you get a job with a big trucking company, sooner or later they're gonna put you in a Tesla...
doubt it, there's no infrastructure for it, and the speed the governmwnt works it will be 25 years
It doesn't matter if there's only one charging station every 50 miles, they'll give you a route that has you stopping where they are.
Charge time doesn't matter because you already have mandatory breaks, and if you pull a lot of grades, you'll actually make better time because that thing has a thousand horse power unit.
10 years ago, EVs were experimental slop subsidized by greenies, now it's production stuff being bought by bean-counters.
Charge time doesn't matter because you already have mandatory breaks, and if you pull a lot of grades, you'll actually make better time because that thing has a thousand horse power unit.
10 years ago, EVs were experimental slop subsidized by greenies, now it's production stuff being bought by bean-counters.
@cjd @Evil_Bender @pepsi_man I have never seen an electric truck, and I rarely see electric cars, sounds like cap to me
The thing is they're expensive, say like $250k.
But if you're getting 8 MPG with your diesel and an electric gets 2 kWh/mile, if you're paying 20 cents per kWh then that's $3.20 per 8 miles, so you're saving like $3 per 8 miles.
If you're averaging 500 miles per day, you're saving $187/day.
Your driver's $300/day and you're gonna amortize that truck over 5 years, so that's costing you about $166 per working day (lets figure the truck is moving 300 days out of a year).
Now you take that and you look at maintenance and repair on these DEF/DPF shits and at the end of the day it just makes sense.
The sad story is gonna be for all the owner-operators who are driving their 1990s detroit diesel with no emissions, and they're gonna get fucked over on fuel and the big companies are gonna eat their lunch on freight rates.
But if you're getting 8 MPG with your diesel and an electric gets 2 kWh/mile, if you're paying 20 cents per kWh then that's $3.20 per 8 miles, so you're saving like $3 per 8 miles.
If you're averaging 500 miles per day, you're saving $187/day.
Your driver's $300/day and you're gonna amortize that truck over 5 years, so that's costing you about $166 per working day (lets figure the truck is moving 300 days out of a year).
Now you take that and you look at maintenance and repair on these DEF/DPF shits and at the end of the day it just makes sense.
The sad story is gonna be for all the owner-operators who are driving their 1990s detroit diesel with no emissions, and they're gonna get fucked over on fuel and the big companies are gonna eat their lunch on freight rates.
@cjd @Evil_Bender @pepsi_man maybe in theory, but the whole charging infrastructure hasnt been proven with massive fleets of electric trucks, the whole thing is just theoretical at this point
> charging infrastructure hasnt been proven
It's not like you have to prove that the chargers will work, like as if they might mysteriously not start up and we need physicists to figure out why...
It's just a question of whether there are enough of them on the routes you want and if the price of power at the chargers is economical.
Now there's a lot of short haul shit, and for that they're just gonna charge it at the warehouse. Long distance you have to actually find the chargers and confirm the price of power and so on, but this is classic work for an office worker at a large trucking company.
If you're small, you go on trucking dot com and you find a contract and bid. If you're big, you know your main routes, you know basically how many trucks are gonna go over interstate 5 (for example) in a year, so you're gonna put electrics where there ARE chargers and where you're doing a lot of driving.
Like I said, this was theoretical 10 years ago, at this point it's pretty much inevitable...
It's not like you have to prove that the chargers will work, like as if they might mysteriously not start up and we need physicists to figure out why...
It's just a question of whether there are enough of them on the routes you want and if the price of power at the chargers is economical.
Now there's a lot of short haul shit, and for that they're just gonna charge it at the warehouse. Long distance you have to actually find the chargers and confirm the price of power and so on, but this is classic work for an office worker at a large trucking company.
If you're small, you go on trucking dot com and you find a contract and bid. If you're big, you know your main routes, you know basically how many trucks are gonna go over interstate 5 (for example) in a year, so you're gonna put electrics where there ARE chargers and where you're doing a lot of driving.
Like I said, this was theoretical 10 years ago, at this point it's pretty much inevitable...
@cjd @Evil_Bender @pepsi_man I'll believe it when I see it. They said this about cars too and it didnt happen
With cars, the math is different.
I have a diesel car and I have no reason to buy anything else. That's because the amount I drive is very little so fuel cost is marginal compared to amortization of the vehicle.
A lot of people did buy electrics, they're like 90% in Norway, but that's more a lifestyle purchase, like buying a Harley Davidson. Norwegians are rich enough they can throw down for a Tesla.
But in China, EVs are 20% of trucking, and 50% of cars so it's not like something needs to be proven at this point...
I have a diesel car and I have no reason to buy anything else. That's because the amount I drive is very little so fuel cost is marginal compared to amortization of the vehicle.
A lot of people did buy electrics, they're like 90% in Norway, but that's more a lifestyle purchase, like buying a Harley Davidson. Norwegians are rich enough they can throw down for a Tesla.
But in China, EVs are 20% of trucking, and 50% of cars so it's not like something needs to be proven at this point...
@cjd @Evil_Bender @pepsi_man China cant prove anything, every chinese stat is a lie.
Ill believe it when a western country proves it
Ill believe it when a western country proves it
ive been a diesel tech almost a quarter of a century. I dont see any practicality to a battery operated vehicle moving 40t at 70mph for 770mi in 1 DOT allowed per day trip.
A ford lightning f150 can barely haul its 7500lbs capacity 80mi before its dead. Its a pointless technology.
A ford lightning f150 can barely haul its 7500lbs capacity 80mi before its dead. Its a pointless technology.
and where was it this winter that got a bit cold and the electric cars all died, or California not letting you charge because of increased energy demand?
@Evil_Bender @cjd @medievalwars The fundamental flaw with EV tech, as I see it, is EVs solve no problems while introducing a whole host of new ones.
Here's the rub: The elites really REALLY want EV tech bc muh climate change. We're going to have to deal with it for now.
Long term, I bet we see EV box trucks making deliveries in cities. Think of something like an electric F-350. But eventually everyone will see the hype for what it is and that's hype.
> EVs solve no problems while introducing a whole host of new ones
If you're Europe or China, they solve a big problem: You need dollars to buy gas and if you try to work around that, the US get bitchy
> Long term, I bet we see EV box trucks making deliveries in cities.
My wife bought a phone and the guy who delivered it was in an electric van, and we're not city at all.
> But eventually everyone will see the hype for what it is and that's hype.
It was hype up until 2019 - which was the last year "muh climate" was a thing. Ever since then it's been 😷 💉 and then 🇺🇦 , 🇵🇸 , etc. Even Greta had to get a new job.
But then 2020 was the first year that EVs actually started getting traction, see chart. Everybody who trades in when their warrantee expires doesn't care about reliability or repairability, if the price difference between gas and power is bigger than the price difference of the car, they just buy the EV.
If you're Europe or China, they solve a big problem: You need dollars to buy gas and if you try to work around that, the US get bitchy
> Long term, I bet we see EV box trucks making deliveries in cities.
My wife bought a phone and the guy who delivered it was in an electric van, and we're not city at all.
> But eventually everyone will see the hype for what it is and that's hype.
It was hype up until 2019 - which was the last year "muh climate" was a thing. Ever since then it's been 😷 💉 and then 🇺🇦 , 🇵🇸 , etc. Even Greta had to get a new job.
But then 2020 was the first year that EVs actually started getting traction, see chart. Everybody who trades in when their warrantee expires doesn't care about reliability or repairability, if the price difference between gas and power is bigger than the price difference of the car, they just buy the EV.
let me know when electric can pull a 12k lbs trailer up the mountains and not stop for 300mi and only long enough to fuel, piss and grab jerky.
I want a diesel-electric hybrid for that and I'm hoping someone like Edison will eventually have an e-axle setup that can go into GMT400/800 frames.
Hybrids have really weird economics. All of the big OEMs went all-in on hybrids a decade ago and they all got buttfucked by Tesla because they were building two drivetrains and Elon was only building one.
And as battery costs came down, everything they had done got blown to shit.
There are SOME places where hybrids could make sense, but I don't know if anybody has a stomach to go into them right now - outside of niche bespoke players like Edison.
The problem is, it takes you 5-10 years to do the engineering and release the product, build a market, fix the issues that arise, and so on - and while you were doing that, battery prices fall by 50% and suddenly your idea doesn't even make sense on paper...
And as battery costs came down, everything they had done got blown to shit.
There are SOME places where hybrids could make sense, but I don't know if anybody has a stomach to go into them right now - outside of niche bespoke players like Edison.
The problem is, it takes you 5-10 years to do the engineering and release the product, build a market, fix the issues that arise, and so on - and while you were doing that, battery prices fall by 50% and suddenly your idea doesn't even make sense on paper...
Correct, I'm basically describing a corner case that is much closer in application to a vocational truck role (heavy towed loads, medium distances, limited/nonexistent charging availability)
This is a very different use space than guy that commutes to work 30-40 miles over mostly flat pavement, an ideal place to have a simple EV.
This is a very different use space than guy that commutes to work 30-40 miles over mostly flat pavement, an ideal place to have a simple EV.
Yeah, super tricky b/c right now the Tesla semi long range version is 500 miles. Battery nerd shit that's in the lab now may be able to double that, so anyone who is trying to do a hybrid is racing the battery industry, and that a race that a lot of people tried and lost.
The problem is charging time though. Gas "charges" quickly. You can refill in minutes, and a single gas station can serve hundreds of customers a day. EV takes hours. So you have to litter the world with charging stations and wait a long time to drive.
Current best battery chemistry (currently) can charge 0-100 in 6 minutes.
You have to send The Wrath Of God through that charge cable, but the Chinese have figured it out.
They use big buffer batteries to charge from the grid and then dump them into your car when you connect.
There's new chemistry can do 3 minutes, but at that point it's so much power that you need a different charge plug.
You have to send The Wrath Of God through that charge cable, but the Chinese have figured it out.
They use big buffer batteries to charge from the grid and then dump them into your car when you connect.
There's new chemistry can do 3 minutes, but at that point it's so much power that you need a different charge plug.
Yeah. Tech may catch up, but it's not there yet. They also have to take price into consideration, and without excessive subsidies, which we pay for anyway.
By way of analogy.... even here with our high electrical prices, the math on solar still doesn't work out.
By way of analogy.... even here with our high electrical prices, the math on solar still doesn't work out.
Solar does work, China and India are deploying it like it's the end of the world. Nothing works in California because everything is illegal except crime.
It's the price that's the issue. It's not worth putting in the capital. The return isn't there.
I won't get into the nightmare markets / agreements this had created, like fly-by-night contractors with unenforceable warranties, roof easements, problems selling real property because the solar lessor won't sign off or can't be found, leaky roofs, etc. I've seen it all.
I won't get into the nightmare markets / agreements this had created, like fly-by-night contractors with unenforceable warranties, roof easements, problems selling real property because the solar lessor won't sign off or can't be found, leaky roofs, etc. I've seen it all.
Yea, somebody I know was a sales guy for this, in Cali.
But I mean the price people are paying for this stuff is not The Price.
India isn't paying more than 10 cents a watt for their panels, and you look at putting in a 10kw system in the US, that's not $1000.
But I mean the price people are paying for this stuff is not The Price.
India isn't paying more than 10 cents a watt for their panels, and you look at putting in a 10kw system in the US, that's not $1000.
I wish we could use those micro-systems, the ones you can throw up in the yard on a sunny day and plug into an outlet. I could see those coming in handy in some cases, and they are cheaper, but they're illegal here.
Here it's common to use a non-grid-tie inverter w/ a battery and use the grid to top up the battery in case there isn't enough sun, but otherwise just run off the battery.
Here's like 6k€ for 11kw of capacity, plus another 11kw of spare solar panels because they sell them by the pallet.
Is it just impossible to get those kind of prices in the US ?
Here's like 6k€ for 11kw of capacity, plus another 11kw of spare solar panels because they sell them by the pallet.
Is it just impossible to get those kind of prices in the US ?
$3.5k+/kw with battery etc. This doesn't include risk, e.g. warranty, failure before end of useful life, leaky roof, etc.
3.5k per kw is INSANE.
I don't care warrantee and insurance and shit, that can cost like 50% of the hardware, that's legitimate. 10x the cost of the system is theivery.
Anyway, there's the explanation of why it makes sense in India and not in California...
I don't care warrantee and insurance and shit, that can cost like 50% of the hardware, that's legitimate. 10x the cost of the system is theivery.
Anyway, there's the explanation of why it makes sense in India and not in California...
I grew up in operations. Every dollar is projected and risk taken into account with tolerances. A lot of people make the mistake of looking at pure monetary outlay alone.
Given my experience with solar companies and related issues, risk is a major factor here.
If the math worked out, that could be dealt with, since the local contractors I trust would then do the work.
Given my experience with solar companies and related issues, risk is a major factor here.
If the math worked out, that could be dealt with, since the local contractors I trust would then do the work.
I think you solve a lot of risk just by not putting the panels on a roof. If you're thinking about it like a utility, it's land and hardware.
1970s / 80s set backs are typically 10 to 15 feet on a .25 acre in the burbs, but they're starting to build near zero now. There's really no where but roof on most houses. Maybe I should make an all solar panel fence? 😏
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It might just make no sense.
But still you can easily do the math in your head of how if you're a utility, you go buy a great big field of trash land that doesn't grow anything, it's dirt cheap, you hire some cheap labor to throw a bunch of panels on it, and you're making real money...
But still you can easily do the math in your head of how if you're a utility, you go buy a great big field of trash land that doesn't grow anything, it's dirt cheap, you hire some cheap labor to throw a bunch of panels on it, and you're making real money...
There is a related issue here to... and it's that having utilities guarantees that power is supplied to entire areas. Making the owner purely responsible for electricity, especially with no standardized installation (unlike internal electrical which is simple, cheap, and old as time), can lead to blight house by house.