Egregoros

annoyed at the critical failure of all NATO and NATO-affiliated countries to get around the corruption of the military machine bureocracy and change gears (in 4 years) to focus on drone and anti-drone warfare to any measurable extent. Media states that Iran has only this many missiles and the US has only this many THAAD defence missiles and so on, but the entire collective west has forgot that the collective south (BRICS) has a capability to extremely cheaply and in high numbers mass produce total war scale drones. Not to forget that Iran supplied russia pretty much entirely with long range drones in 2022 and 2023. Russia today spends roughly 200 long range drones a day on Ukraine. Iran can, and produces, roughly 300 - 600 long range drones a day currently (A DAY! DESPITE TOTAL WORLD WIDE SANCTIONS SINCE FOREVER!), with a stockpile roughly around 100 000 shahed drones pre-war.

If morale of the shia and other extremists holds up for a month+ (4 weeks, as trump states himself), its going to be a total catastrophe for the gulf nations (the GCC), the US and Israel have no defence against the absolute wall of drones that iran could potentially release. The US produces 100 THAAD missiles a year roughly (patriot missiles and the likes), with plans to upgrade the production to 400 missiles a year. To see this number barely match the DAILY production of shahed drones of Iran, is depressing. And there is no widely known drone defence technology being quickly adapted (in the past 4 years, or today) by NATO(and adjacent forces). There is a dangerously great potential for a lapse of defences very soon for the arabic peninsula region after the next 2-4 weeks, which has the potential to last for a month or 3.

If this lapse occurs, then it is possible for Iran to go all-in in destroying the "rich" cities of arabia by destroying the water infrastructure of those nations and hyper-cities that are on the arabian peninsula. One Shahed drone, generally a 1 time use 50kg use suicide/kamikaze drone. Many variants exist, all the way to massive 1 ton beast drones carrying ~10x 50kg bombs. Really funny is that most of these drones were designed in the UK lmfao. Yet due to the inflexibility and corruption of the military industrial machine, NATO armies have so far totally failed to follow suit, betting it all on ukraine keeping a prolonged war until enough time has naturally passed for things to just self-correct.

UAE uses 550 liters of water per person per day. Functionally, all of this comes from desalination plants. 70 desalination plants in the UAE produce 50% of the useable water in the UAE. Places like Abu Dhabi (with 8 desalination plants) have a 90 day water reserve (~5 BIGs, Billion Imperial Gallons of water) assuming 1 million users. There are buffers, but they are quite on the edge of the situation. Dubai (with 20 big and 20 small desalination plants) has roughly in the ballpark range of 1.5 BIGs of reserve useable water. Now there is little chance incase of successful desalination plant knockouts that all that reserved water will last 90 days, 45~ would be a safer assumption. So 45 days to set up a global, multi million inhabitants covering water resupply effort, if the war continues for ~2 months and Iran successfully targets the correct targets.

stretegically, Iran has their target goals set out for them: Oil fields of the arabia, civilian infrastructure of isreal, military bases of the USA, and desalination plants of the arabian peninsula. Israel cities can be mostly defended from drones, military bases of the USA aswell mostly. But the desalination plants AND oil fields are rather vulnerable due to lacking immediately surrounding military infrastructure and also being so numerous.

i guess good luck to the iranians on their giga shia jihad against the great satan, and good luck to america in bottling this nightmare in less than 4 weeks, lest a water catastrophe of the grandest scale is to occur.

if this is contained and iran is either regime changed, anarchy-ficated, or balkanized within 4 (+-1) weeks, this is going to be objectively a really great thing overall. if this stays total war tier for over 4 weeks, the potential for ultimate catastrophe lasting for ~3-4 months of the arabian peninsula is insane to think about. I guess the worst nightmare scenario is that the war drags on for 6+ months, the US and its major NATO allies are sending their inventory to iran AND ukraine, causing future East Asian funnies (taiwan/taipei, NK/SK, be it just tension increases or minor skirmishes, the destability is a net negative for everyone). . as for the effect on the global economy im gonna say "whatever, who cares, not me, already had 50% inflation at home in one year back in 2022"

i guess the next week (by march 10ish) shows whether a decentralized doctrine Iran war-machine works or not, and from there whether any of these scenarios have a reality for them, or if im getting reality checked. The condition for very prolonged war is a pretty clear signal: 100 or more drones sent into the arabian peninsula daily by iran around march 10 and on the days before it. Thats the only measureable signal which shows a success, or a failure, in the forcibly decentralized structure of warfare doctrine that Iran must use. the doctrine that russia and ukraine both already have incorporated into their daily doctrine, waaaay ago!

i await excitedly the future of one week from now to have more data to analyze!