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Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
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I don't know what it is with New York Pizza. IMO Italian is far better, but Epstein & Friends seemed to really like NYC style coal fired pizza.

There is some very suspicious usage of the word "pizza" in the messages, but AFACT there were also actual plans to go to actual pizzerias and eat actual pizza. Untangling the two is a job for people smarter than me, I'll just leave you with a little playlist of reviews of pizzerias their group seems to enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzYF20T894M9D-pcjdJnguMmlNKxRo213
touch fluffy tail (Heroic) :verified:

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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd
>pizza al taglio
yeah pizza by the slice is pretty popular in nyc too, it's more or less the street food.
but these rectangular slices are uncommon there. however, i've seen those in the midwest, especially in the detroit area. there the style is a little different from your photos, it's crispier, there is more there (see pic). in general i don't really like european pizzas, i've not had any pizza in paris but in north italy i've had pizza a few times, feels about as real as the eiffel tower in las vegas.

the coal fired pizzas is (was?) a big trend in nyc, i have lost count how many times i've gone to eat it, i wouldn't read into it too much if some guys in nyc eat a lot of it
image.png
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link
> pizza by the slice is pretty popular in nyc too

You mean like NYC style pizza, just one slice instead of a pie?

> see pic

media.fse is Very Dead ATM...

> north italy i've had pizza a few times

Queue obligatory "northern Italians aren't Italian" comments :]

I had pizza in central Italy with some Italians, it was pretty much the same as (see below). Delicious, but not life-changing. I still prefer the al taglio style.

> i wouldn't read into it too much if some guys in nyc eat a lot of it

From what I read, there's two things going on:
1. They clearly love pizza, simple as that.
2. They *occasionally* say something that either doesn't make sense for how a normal person would go for pizza, or else just plain doesn't make sense for how a native speaker would use the English language.

Like I said, people smarter than me are sure to pick apart #2 to the ends of the earth, and I'm sure we'll eventually see some really impressive analysis - eventually.
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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd yeah in general i find in europe the pizza isn't remarkable.

it's just about who does the dish authentically.
you go to california to eat mexican, to japan to eat sushi, you don't to go europe to eat pizza, you get cheese and bread there, or various things depending on the region (e.g. soft pretzels and beer in germany).

>things going on
yeah man, i mean, do you think that if someone were to look at your own emails, that you'd never say something that makes no sense?

i'm not saying nothing happened, but sounding a little bit retarded isn't a smoking gun.
keep in mind that we need to remember our human nature, we are vulnerable to apophenia, the more you look at a dataset the more you hallucinate trends that are not there, it is part of our brain wiring, the guys looking at these emails are not using evan a basic layer of separation like a line fit, i think that there's a high chance of hallucination.

of course maybe it's all true, maybe there really was some secret code using pizza box letters like on hollywood television. or maybe it's just people buying pizza and saying stupid things. one of these things is a little more likely.
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link
> i'm not saying nothing happened, but sounding a little bit retarded isn't a smoking gun

I'm not sure you're reading me right. I'm not a journo and I'm not a cop, so it's not my job to make an accusation.

I'm looking at this with the perspective that if anything did happen, *someone* is gonna dig it up, and in another decade it'll all be public knowledge. And I don't want to be caught off guard.

So I'm gonna be much more sensitive than I would be if I was in a position of actually making an accusation. Basically what I'm saying is the way they use words is suspicious enough that I would not go take group photos with them.
touch fluffy tail (Heroic) :verified:

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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd well, we'll see what happens. pizzagate was a decade ago, i'm not holding my breath that anything new shows up.

so far, the boys' groupchat has been pounded with tweets about one big controversy from the epstein emails after another. and so far, we are at 100% of these being a nothingburger, at least with the emails i have seen. it's all on justice.gov, you can pull up the email, and most of the time it's something like a bloomberg mailing list.

now, you didn't post any relevant emails that i could look through, but you're an honest fellow. if you say that they say nonsense things, i believe you. but that's not new, right? this was in pizzagate. the reality is that this latest batch of emails has not really shown much that is new. so i do not think there will be any change to the status quo.

i am much more interested in how a large number of emails were deleted a matter of hours after they were posted on justice.gov . purportedly, the search results matching "rothschild" went down from 12073 to 11860 a day after release, and who knows how many other emails were pulled as well. do you know anything about this?
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link
> the boys' groupchat has been pounded with tweets

The conspirisphere is always noisy. What matters is what's gonna actually be there when the dust settles.

> has not really shown much that is new

I would withhold comment for the moment, people smarter and more motivated than us are still digging, we'll see what pans out, just gotta be patient.

> a large number of emails were deleted a matter of hours after they were posted on justice.gov

Figures. Hope someone scraped them first...

> do you know anything about this?

First I heard of it.
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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd
if someone finds something it will be very loud, so we can relax and pay attention to the important things, like which part of italy and which part of the midwest has the best pizza. personally, i prefer chicago style to new york style when eating an entire pie, but the new york style slices have a certain nostalgia.

or would that be suspicious? if we did this, would people say we are obsessed with pizza? haha

>The conspirisphere is always noisy
that is something else entirely, so i may have been ambiguous in my writing.
specifically. i am stating in no uncertain terms that of the popular epstein findings, all of the ones popular enough to make it into a boys groupchat, that 100% of them i have checked, and these have been mistakes, misinterpretations, or nothing at all.
this is a strong statement, and very different from what you imply here, that it is some sort of biased sampling from terminally online internet posters.
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
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> if someone finds something it will be very loud

Not so much loud, but it will have staying power - it won't drop out of the discourse after a couple weeks/months/years.

> we can relax and pay attention to the important things, like which part of italy and which part of the midwest has the best pizza

Yesssss

> or would that be suspicious?

No.

> popular enough to make it into a boys groupchat

Unfortunately, popularity is a terrible metric for validity. You need to use staying power, but for that you need time, so the only way to know is to sit tight.
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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd
>staying power is an indicator of validity
there's loads of theories that are really old. area 51 ufos, holocaust denial, jfk shooting, 911 inside job, etc.
i'm not sure it's much of an indicator.
and actually, i think that popularity - while not being necessarily an indicator of validity - is not a poor heuristic for relevance in the short term. just thinking about a few examples, i feel like it is better than coin flip odds that if something is big news there will be a reason for it.
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link
If I had to choose between:
1. JFK shooting is not what it seemed to be, and
2. Epstein pizza orders are not what they seem to be,

I'd take JFK 10 times out of 10.

Why this all matters though is because we're living through a weird transitionary period. Thirty years ago, you could cover something up and make it more or less disappear. In 30 years, that's going to be entirely impossible (because the era of mass media is over, computers are bad at forgetting, and cameras/microphones are EVERY-FUCKING-WHERE). So over the next few decades we should expect much better finality on a lot of these matters.

Basically we're living through a long version of The Judgement.
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
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Well I mean you already said yourself that your group chat was getting blown up by tweets which all turned out to be nothing. If you're looking at NEW stuff, there's just so much that's gonna be forgotten in a couple of weeks that it's self-evident that stuff with staying power is more likely to be accurate.

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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd as you can tell, it is not immediately apparent to me that staying power is related to accuracy.

can you articulate the relationship? is it based off of certain observations?
or maybe you have some guess about why there should be a relationship instead?

naively speaking, it sounds like a pretty messy situation subject to all sorts of noise and circumstances, actually i would have a hard time making assertions one way or another, absolutely would not say that it is self-evident, that is quite strong.
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link
It's really just an application of Lindy Effect.

Suppose people make up a million conspiracy theories per day.
900,000 of them are so wonky that nobody bothers with them after a week.
A year later, only 10 of them are still being discussed.

If you're picking a random theory out of a had, your odds of picking something that ends up proving true is *orders of magnitude* better if you pick ones that are over a year old.
touch fluffy tail (Heroic) :verified:

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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd
>lindy effect
very interesting! i have never encountered a phenomenon by this name before.

thinking briefly, it's an expected behavior for many very reasonable systems. you could even tie in validity as part of the ode, causing this to naturally surface. additionally, i think the assumptions are not too unbelievable...

yes, it makes sense to me
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link

Not perfect b/c there's stuff that collapses under tiniest scrutiny but still refuses to ever die because it strikes a certain cultural nerve - but it's good as a first filter to get rid of the insane amount of noise so you can start actually trying to guess what's going to pan out.

Replying to @cjd@pkteerium.xyz
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@fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org remote
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@cjd eh? what's the point of having a model if you have no estimates for any situation

and anyway it's a lot easier to just look at 10 long term theories and count how many are true, then you have an estimate for this one situation, given certain reasonable assumptions it should more or less not be too different from others, you are simply measuring empirically, very doable! vs how on earth are you going to make an equation for corruption and suspicion and loop them into this, you go from "thinking for 5 seconds" tier into someone's phd thesis with this kind of direction... with no real benefit! you go from evidence-based statements to theory!

the simple fact is that i do not know ten conspiracy theories, i counted, it did not get to ten, so my sample size is too small

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Replying to @fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link
> what's the point of having a model if you have no estimates for any situation

Even though it doesn't give absolute probabilities, relative probabilities are still very powerful.

> look at 10 long term theories and count how many are true

More like "how many can be falsified" because you probably cannot prove any of them true, and if you're making a fuzzy decision which are true then your biases will skew results.

> simply measuring empirically, very doable

Works within a domain, not safe to generalize so it doesn't answer the question as you asked it.
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Replying to @fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org
Caleb James DeLisle

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote
Open link
So lets say:
1. Titanic was sunk intentionally
2. Archeological history is being suppressed (lost civilizations)
3. JFK assassination not what it seemed
4. Moon landing fake
5. 9/11 inside job
6. Water fluoridation is malicious
7. Vaccine development is malicious
8. Free energy technology exists and is being suppressed
9. Children are abducted, sold, and raped by elites
10. Jews control the world

Flat Earth is probably still too new to list.

So, none of them "immediately collapse under scrutiny" in the sense of Flat Earth "go up in a plane and look at the curve".

I would say #8 "Free energy" can be considered "challenged" because anyone who did discover such a thing would begin mining bitcoin, and they would continue to scale their operation until it became so big that it couldn't remain entirely secret.

Likewise I would say #10 can be considered challenged because A. there are lots of jews who don't control much of anything, and B. there are lots of events which go in a way that is not that favorable to Israel.

Lots of people have lots of things to say about all of them, but I'm only calling out 8 and 10 because they're something you can look at and challenge based on first principles deduction alone.

I would say that in essentially all of these cases, if you attempt to debunk it, and begin reviewing the claims in order to know what you're debunking, you *always* run into something that makes it impossible to be sure of what really happened - unless you're willing to "pretend you didn't see that".

I don't have a very high confidence level here, but if I had to put a number on it, I'd say probably 6 out of 10 will turn out to be "true or largely true".

World is a strange place.
Replying to @fluffy@fsebugoutzone.org