Egregoros

The EU wants to get to a point of peace with Russia because they know that America is not going to continue to bankroll this war, and they can't afford it.

Unfortunately for them, Russia has them bent over a barrel, so their demands are gonna be rich.

The US is tapped out, so no help to come from that hemisphere.

The only hope for the EU is that China will come in with some kind of a bailout program because they don't want to see Russia conquer Europe and then be able to form a Eurasian hegemony that will then proceed to roll China...

But bailout without restructuring is just extending the bad practices, and Europe needs to cut spending. Unfortunately "stop spending money you don't have" is never a vote-winner, so herein lies a challenge.

But in that regard, Europe has a really surprising opportunity because the EU and ECB are kind of autocratic, so if China will underwrite the Euro, they can be given partial control over monetary policy, so that the failures will be the bad banks rather than the entire currency.

But the problem that remains is the individual countries. The French and Italians don't understand financial markets, they understand that you vote for presidents who do or don't give you nice stuff. The reality is more like "Vote for whoever you want, but if they are not financially sound, you get flogged by the bond market".

It's like the scene in Indiana Jones: Voters decide which cup to drink from, and the bond market says whether they chose wisely, or not.

RT: https://merovingian.club/users/vexo/statuses/117140832217206212

Also, if the French bonds go berserk, going back to their old currency doesn't make those bonds go away. Telling the creditors to pound sand is a strategy, but then nobody will lend them anything at all. Any European country that talks about going back to their old currency, is PROBABLY going to print money and dump it on their populous, in order to get EUR, or USD, or whatever is the currency their actual bonds are denominated in, and pay them.

That every full on hyperinflation scenario in the past century has been exactly that dynamic.

So in this regard, EUR is protecting the people from themselves. It'd be better if it was XAU but that's a digression...

The other problem with exiting the EU is then each state is gonna get treated like some South American joke country by Russia, China, etc. And nobody wants to end up negotiating like that.

There's five things a country can do:

1. Stay in the Euro, keep paying creditors, keep borrowing and pretending (status quo)

2. Stay in the Euro, keep paying creditors, stop irrational spending (the "diet and exercise" answer because it works the best but nobody ever does it)

3. Stay in the Euro, default on debts, irrational spending stops by force because nobody will lend you any more money. Government is fucked, but the country keeps functioning.

4. Leave the Euro, keep paying creditors, keep borrowing and pretending (hyperinflation 💀 )

5. Leave the Euro, keep paying creditors, stop irrational spending (haha nobody gonna do that shit, nice try)

6. Leave the Euro, default on debts... Become financially very isolated, hard to convince anyone to accept your money on foreign exchange markets, imports become challenging, foreign investment scared, probably 💀