Egregoros

Pretty sure even the Pentagon isnt dumb enough to telegraph this so far in advance.

I saw a video (real/notreal/whocares) where an F18 got tagged by a MANPAD so that was pretty cool and novel to see.

I'd expect they have problems just patrolling. It was supposed to be a three day campaign you see, and we don't have too many assets on hand....

Unless they are using POWs as human shields. Didn't they supposedly capture a bunch of Navy Seals?

The island close enough to the coast that speed boats and subs could carry men and man portable materials. its close to the mountainous coast which can hide SAMS. so constant coverage isn't safe.

oh Kharg is right there? I thought it was in the strait. Well they still hold the base in Kuwait so turn around times for aircraft should be short and they can refill ships from there

The fact normies even know the word "karg" seems psy-oppy to me, like they want to engineer one plausible victory that sticks in the public mind before a dignified "peace treaty" where nothing really changes too much, but they can shrug and tell the jews they tried.

That isn't going to be a whole lot easier to do than seizing Kharg Island, just less overtly suicidal, and they'd have to go for a major port area to be able to offload supplies.

TKD

I have no doubt the US could achieve a landing somewhere, even if contested and taking serious causalities. My question is how the US plans to hold any landing once achieved.

Exactly. Drones, rockets, missiles, artillery. No close air support.

Amphibious landing that immediately results in urban combat

Unless you can encircle the city. They did that a lot in Iraq.

from the sea? with no air assets?

The Iraqi army was surrendering en-masse to advancing US forces. Nothing about the situation is comparable.

Iran is a near peer. They haven't faced actual combat yet. Lobbing a bunch of missiles isn't actual war. Maybe they are so focused on rockets that their actual Army is like Pakistans. I know literally nothing about their capabilities. I'm pretty sure we'd fuck up Pakistan or Indian troops. Iran hasnt had a war in 45 years. They have no troops with combat experience.

We are all just assuming they have this great army. I have no idea. We might be safer on the ground than in the water.

I'm less convinced that they are some insurmountable force. Who knows.

Drones are definitely a huge factor. Im sure they have a plan to deal with them. No idea what that is.

True. But we have a professional military. There is some semblance of discipline in the ranks. I have no idea if Iran has a professional army. Maybe they have been investing everything into these rockets at the expense of the army. They didn't really have much of an air force or navy apparently.

I think you are right but apparently someone thinks it's feasible.

Yes. Yes and yes.

Yes, this

You are probably right. No idea if the terrain is comparable.

It's very mountainous terrain. Ravines, passes are killboxes. These routes are probably mined already. Kharg Island is probably IED hell.

Bobbie trap city

Studying the great Fedi armchair generals.

Same here.

I don’t honestly have any real way of knowing details; but Persians are an ancient Nation with a proud history of conquest. They’ve been around literal millennia. That they’re *still* around, in a strategically well-defensible land with area comparable to Western Europe, strongly suggests to me they know how to run an Army in defense of their homeland. My two cents

You could say the same thing about Greece. Pretty sure we'd have no trouble with them.

What I'm saying is I don't know.

I think ultimately they want normalization. I do think they have been treated unfairly.