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That's actually a bit LESS bonkers than I had originally thought.
Basically what JPM is saying is that once Countries That Matter start to have oil troubles, they're going to say "Look, we need this problem solved, and whoever is making trouble for getting it solved, you're gonna start losing family members in Nasty Accidents, fix this right now."
Basically what JPM is saying is that once Countries That Matter start to have oil troubles, they're going to say "Look, we need this problem solved, and whoever is making trouble for getting it solved, you're gonna start losing family members in Nasty Accidents, fix this right now."
Problem is that the countries that really matter (China, Iran, Russia) may have differing opinions on the matter, and not with each other
Iran kinda matters but kinda doesn't. They're relevant to this particular situation, but they're not considered a "Country That Matters" in the general sense. They're gonna basically do what China tells to them to do because China is their benefactor at this point.
Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer.
China will basically threaten to sic North Korea on South Korea if they are being strangled.
I expect the most sneaky and clever shenanigans will come out of Europe, because they're fairly expert at finding pressure points and exploiting them. Perhaps they will push toward launching a UN investigation into the Palestinian Genocide or something like that.
Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer.
China will basically threaten to sic North Korea on South Korea if they are being strangled.
I expect the most sneaky and clever shenanigans will come out of Europe, because they're fairly expert at finding pressure points and exploiting them. Perhaps they will push toward launching a UN investigation into the Palestinian Genocide or something like that.
>"Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer."
Actually that implies that they benefit from the strait being closed, since it increases the value of their product
Actually that implies that they benefit from the strait being closed, since it increases the value of their product
just like america is a net producer
except we're artificially lower the price of our oil and demand is spiking thus still driving up prices, becuase people are filling up on our cheap oil and using it overseas
point is, higher priced oil in a "free" market means higher prices for everyone
except we're artificially lower the price of our oil and demand is spiking thus still driving up prices, becuase people are filling up on our cheap oil and using it overseas
point is, higher priced oil in a "free" market means higher prices for everyone
becuase anyone who has lower prices will have increased demand for their oil thus pushing it back up.
if we nationalized our oil industry and cut off exports, we could control the domestic price, but we don't do that becuase that's communist or something.
America's problem is that a lot of countries: Germany, UK, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, all kind of depend on America to figure out their problems for them, and in exchange they offer America loyalty.
If America is like "lol you're on your own bitch", these countries are going to go to China and say "okay, is there a deal we can make?" and if that happens, then the American empire is over.
It probably is anyway, but people are pretending that it's not.
If America is like "lol you're on your own bitch", these countries are going to go to China and say "okay, is there a deal we can make?" and if that happens, then the American empire is over.
It probably is anyway, but people are pretending that it's not.
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1It's probably been over for a while, we've been running on the fumes of legitimacy that we haven't actually had since around the time of the invasion of Iraq. Our military and perception as a superpower have only been eroding since then.