Egregoros

Iranian loses will accelerate now. (switching from standoff range bombardment to overhead precision ones. That's the sign that iran has a massively degraded aa shield). Having targeting eyes up close means easier detection and immediate strikes on tunnel entrances, mobile launchers, vehicles etc. Once that becomes the established mop of zog, ground troops will be prepared for insertion to iran because then cas will be possible. It seems zog is determined to take it all the way. Land war. At least that's what this suggests.

RT: https://poa.st/objects/b225d9be-f162-4eb8-9ba5-be389031f3cd

@cjd @Kalogerosstilitis2RevengeoftheJunta @NoDoxGregBrady I think this is exaggerating things by a bit. It's conceivable that you could get some situation where a lone Japanese soldier is still fighting the world, and conceivable that rogue elements would commit some unwanted escalation, but Iran's mosaic defense doesn't actually seem to be a command for everyone to scatter and go rogue. It seems more like broad tactical independence with a lot of preplanning, so that the military won't just freeze up and become ineffective when command's killed. Statements like "every commander has three replacements" are not statements like "even the last Iranian recruit will flee into the mountains with his last rifle".

It'd be meaningless for Iran to deny having committed some attack for example, with all rogue elements, and there are plenty of attacks that are responsive to time-sensitive intelligence which must still reach people.

Well, you'd have three forces conspiring to make this happen:

1. Redundancy and decentralization built by the central government for continuity purposes.

2. Radicals in the IRGC who may or may not be interested in hearing about a ceasefire that is being called by someone who is not The Ayatollah and who they have never answered to before.

3. Israel who is assassinating everyone who even appears to be establishing themselves as a central authority figure.

At some point, they may truly run out of leaders, and at that point it is most likely to default back to 90 million Lone Japanese Soldiers...

@cjd @Kalogerosstilitis2RevengeoftheJunta @NoDoxGregBrady on 2. Israel's trying to do that, which again is evidence that all that what Israel really wants is regional chaos and failed states. A democratic and liberal Iran would still be attacked because it'd still in the way.

But Israel is not actually succeeding in doing that. It's a possibility, sure, and also there's certainly no easy win like "airdrop the Shah with a bunch of leaflets saying that he's your leader now, please stop".

This was supposed to be a four day war after all. Iran was supposed to be paralyzed by the initial attack. This whole conflict was supposed to happen a month ago with CIA and Mossad-fueled terrorist cells very rapidly degrading the government's legitimacy with a fake revolution. The train is fully off the rails.

@apropos @cjd @Kalogerosstilitis2RevengeoftheJunta @NoDoxGregBrady Same strategy that allowed the British Empire to triumph over Europe, more or less.

The big mistake that Israel KEEPS making with Iran (this is like the 3rd time they've tried) is that there is no energy for internal revolution in Iran. It's more or less a modern country in spite of attempts to destabilize it. It would be like trying to start a revolution in modern Turkey, but for some reason they just assume it will happen over and over and over again even though it has never shown any signs of success.

@Engelsax @Kalogerosstilitis2RevengeoftheJunta @NoDoxGregBrady @cjd Turkey came close to a military coup not too long ago, with some pretty bad scenes and Erdogan fleeing the country.

There's also a lot of nuance in how fake revolutions can go, and Israel probably had the most essential element which is an elite traitor in the target country who can magnanimously surrender after his competitors are disabled.
I don't think the shock-terror-revolution strategy from January was impossible, but it obviously failed very quickly, and any remaining chance of an organic uprising to cover for such a thing was killed at the same time as Khameini. Western planners really took a long time to move on from that plan after it'd obviously failed.